基于物理试验和营运数据双驱动的远洋商船波浪增阻智能预报模型研究

An intelligent physics-data dual-driven WAR prediction model for ocean-going merchant ships

  • 摘要:目的】为构建面向实海况下的实船波浪增阻预报模型,以提升远洋商船与最小主机功率预报的可靠性,针对传统数据驱动方法中的覆盖范围不足、模型系统偏差与较强噪声等问题,本文探索利用少量船模试验与数值模拟数据修正,构造了一种融合物理机理与数据驱动的增阻预报模型。【方法】针对某远洋散货商船,系统分析了水池模型试验与基于势流的数值计算结果,构建了基于试验与理论的波浪增阻物理数据集;提出了一种风浪增阻-推进效率迭代的策略,从实船营运数据中分离并构建了波浪增阻数据库;依托模型实验-数值计算物理数据集,采用插值与同化方法对实船分离增阻数据库进行修正,并针对不同海况等级下的增阻预报结果开展对比与统计分析。【结果】结果表明,经实验-数值融合物理数据集修正后的波浪增阻数据库,与未修正相比预报误差进一步降低且精度得到提升,在WWO 3级和4级海况下经RBF和Lagrange插值修正的模型预报精度分别最高,预测值与真值的统计相关性超过0.93,且<italic>MSE</italic>误差水平均小于1.5%。【结论】本研究所提出的基于数值-试验-航运数据的物理-数据双驱动实船波浪增阻预报模型,相比单一营运数据驱动具有更好的预报精度与工程适用性,可为最小推进功率估算与模型可解释验证提供新的研究思路。

     

    Abstract: Objectives By addressing the issues of insufficient coverage, model system deviation and strong noise in traditional data-driven methods for establishing a Wave-Added Resistance(WAR) prediction model for actual ship to enhance the forecasting reliability of merchant ships and the minimum main-engine power, a WAR physics-data dual-driven model integrating the physical mechanisms and data-driven approaches is constructed by the usage of a small amount of model tests and numerical simulation data for amendment.Methods The results of model test and numerical calculation based on the potential flow theory for a certain ocean-going bulk carrier are systematically analyzed to construct a physical data set for WAR on the basis of experiment and theoretical models. The WAR database is separated by proposing a strategy of wind-wave added resistance iterated with propulsion efficiency and constructed from the operational data of actual ship. Relying on the physical data sets of model experiments and numerical calculations, the separated WAR database of actual ship is amended by using interpolation and assimilation methods, while comparative and statistical analyses are carried out under different sea conditions. Results The results show that the forecast errors of WAR database amended by the experimental-numerical fusion of physical data sets is reduced with the accuracy improved. The dual-driven model by amendment of RBF and Lagrange interpolation possesses the highest accuracy at WWO sea conditions of level 3 and level 4, while statistical correlation <italic>r</italic> value between the predicted and true results reaches over 0.93 with <italic>MSE</italic> less than 1.5%, respectively. Conclusions It is concluded that the proposed physical-data dual-driven WAR prediction model for real ships by physical experiments and shipping big data reveals better prediction accuracy and engineering applicability compared to single data-driven models, which provides an important support for the estimation of minimum propulsion power and the verification of model interpretability.

     

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