基于AE-Transformer-LSTM-ABKDE的船用EHA能耗区间概率预测

Probabilistic Interval Prediction of Energy Consumption for Marine EHA Based on AE-Transformer-LSTM-ABKDE

  • 摘要:目的】针对船用电动静液作动器在复杂工况下能耗预测精度不足且难以量化不确定性的问题,建立了一种基于AE-Transformer-LSTM与自适应带宽核密度估计的能耗区间概率预测模型。【方法】首先,构建Transformer-LSTM新颖时序预测架构,利用Transformer的并行机制与多头注意力提取数据的全局特征,并针对时序任务特性摒弃冗余的解码器,改用LSTM层替换原注意力层以深度捕获动态时序依赖。其次,引入最新提出的阿尔法进化算法(Alpha Evolution,AE),对模型的自注意力机制头数、LSTM隐藏层节点数、学习率及L2正则化系数进行全自动寻优,以克服局部最优并提升收敛速度,输出能耗的高精度点预测值。最后,在点预测误差分布的基础上,采用ABKDE方法进行区间概率估计,并利用黄金分割法高效寻优全局最优带宽参数,以精准捕捉概率密度函数的细节变化。【结果】基于船用EHA实际运行数据的实验表明,经AE优化的Transformer-LSTM模型在点预测精度上显著提升,其均方根误差和平均绝对百分比误差较传统基准模型分别降低了18.5%和22.4%;在区间预测方面,引入黄金分割法优化的ABKDE在95%的置信水平下,使得区间预测覆盖率提高了5.3%,同时区间平均宽度缩减了14.6%。【结论】所构建的混合预测架构有效克服了传统方法在时序特征提取和超参数人工调优上的局限性,实现了兼顾高精度与强鲁棒性的能耗区间概率预测,可为船用EHA的能源精细化管理与高可靠性运行提供科学的数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: Objectives To address the issues of insufficient prediction accuracy and the difficulty in quantifying uncertainties regarding the energy consumption of marine electro-hydrostatic actuators under complex operating conditions, this study proposes a novel interval probability prediction model based on an AE-Transformer-LSTM architecture and Adaptive Bandwidth Kernel Density Estimation. Methods Initially, a novel Transformer-LSTM time-series prediction architecture is constructed. This architecture utilizes the parallel computing mechanism and multi-head attention of the Transformer to extract global data features. Tailored to the characteristics of time-series tasks, the redundant decoder is discarded, and the original attention layers are replaced with Long Short-Term Memory layers to deeply capture dynamic temporal dependencies. Subsequently, the recently proposed Alpha Evolution algorithm is introduced for the fully automated optimization of hyperparameters, including the number of self-attention heads, LSTM hidden nodes, learning rate, and L2 regularization coefficient. This mitigates the risk of falling into local optima, accelerates the convergence rate, and generates highly accurate point predictions for energy consumption. Finally, based on the distribution of point prediction errors, the ABKDE method is employed to estimate interval probabilities. The Golden Section method is applied to efficiently search for the globally optimal bandwidth parameter, thereby accurately capturing the detailed variations of the probability density function. Results Experiments based on the actual operational data of a marine EHA demonstrate that the AE-optimized Transformer-LSTM model achieves a significant enhancement in point prediction accuracy. Compared to traditional baseline models, its Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error are reduced by 18.5% and 22.4%, respectively. Regarding interval prediction, under a 95% confidence level, the ABKDE optimized via the Golden Section method increases the Prediction Interval Coverage Probability by 5.3% while simultaneously shrinking the Prediction Interval Normalized Average Width by 14.6%. Conclusions The proposed hybrid prediction architecture effectively overcomes the limitations of traditional methods regarding temporal feature extraction and manual hyperparameter tuning. It achieves a highly accurate and robust interval probability prediction for energy consumption, providing solid scientific data support for the refined energy management and highly reliable operation of marine EHAs.

     

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