马琳, 谢新连, 王昊泽. 基于改进证据推理法的舰艇综合操纵性能评价方法[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2023, 18(3): 94–103. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.02609
引用本文: 马琳, 谢新连, 王昊泽. 基于改进证据推理法的舰艇综合操纵性能评价方法[J]. 中国舰船研究, 2023, 18(3): 94–103. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.02609
MA L, XIE X L, WANG H Z. Comprehensive evaluation method of maneuvering performance for naval ships based on improved evidential reasoning approach[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2023, 18(3): 94–103. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.02609
Citation: MA L, XIE X L, WANG H Z. Comprehensive evaluation method of maneuvering performance for naval ships based on improved evidential reasoning approach[J]. Chinese Journal of Ship Research, 2023, 18(3): 94–103. doi: 10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.02609

基于改进证据推理法的舰艇综合操纵性能评价方法

Comprehensive evaluation method of maneuvering performance for naval ships based on improved evidential reasoning approach

  • 摘要:
      目的  为尽可能准确地对舰艇操纵性能进行综合评价,对证据推理法进行改进。
      方法  阐述证据推理法的基本概念,对证据推理法的评价原理及基本流程进行总结分析,并从3个方面改进证据推理法:首先,定义性能匹配度,以有效反映舰艇操纵性这一定量指标与海军需求的匹配程度;其次,鉴于现有证据推理法不能融合多时刻的评价数据,提出可信度的概念;最后,针对舰艇操纵性能评价综合指标体系的大量定性指标中单一证据的可靠性难以保证的问题,引入证据可靠性弱化不良数据对评价结果的影响。在此基础上,基于某型舰的操纵性能数据进行综合评价的示例计算和分析,分别对综合评价结果与各个时刻的评价结果、考虑与不考虑证据可靠性的证据推理法进行比较。
      结果  结果表明,运用可信度计算出的综合评价结果与2/3的时刻的评价结果相同,可信度遵循了少数服从多数的原则;使用证据可靠性修正权重,可以将不可靠证据的权重从20.00%降至13.49%,有效降低其对综合评价结果的影响。
      结论  研究成果对证据推理法的应用具有较好的借鉴价值,为舰艇操纵性能综合评价提供了一种新思路。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To ensure accurate comprehensive evaluation of naval ship's maneuvering performance as far as possible, this study proposes an improved evidential reasoning approach.
      Method  The basic concept of the approach is introduced and its evaluation principle and basic process are summarized and analyzed. The approach is then improved in three aspects: first, in order to effectively reflect the matching degree of ship maneuverability and navy demand, the performance matching degree is defined; second, as existing evidential reasoning approaches cannot integrate multi-temporal evaluation data, the concept of credibility is proposed; and third, to address the problem of the large number of qualitative indicators in the evaluation index system, which makes it difficult to guarantee the reliability of single evidence, the reliability of evidence is introduced to weaken the impact of poor data on the evaluation results. On this basis, an example of comprehensive evaluation is calculated and analyzed based on the maneuvering performance data of a certain type of ship. The comprehensive evaluation results are then compared with the evaluation results at each time, and comparisons are made of the evidential reasoning approach with and without considering evidence reliability.
      Result  The comprehensive evaluation results calculated using credibility are the same as the evaluation results two thirds of the time, and credibility follows the principle of minority to majority; and by using evidence reliability correction weighting, the weight of unreliable evidence can be reduced from 20.00% to 13.49%, effectively reducing its impact on the comprehensive evaluation results.
      Conclusion  The results of this study have good reference value for the application of the evidential reasoning approach, and provide a new idea for the comprehensive evaluation of the maneuvering performance of naval vessels.

     

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